Up to this point, general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have done many things right. The Bills could, of course, promote quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey to offensive coordinator for the sake of continuity, but what does that actually solve? I stand behind my prediction that he will not have justified the price tag of the hypothetical fifth year at the conclusion of the coming season. The Bills front office should pump the breaks here on Josh Allen. Allen’s fifth year would pay him like a top-ten quarterback. We’re one year away from a major decision for the Bills’ front office. And in 2016, the Bills handed Tyrod Taylor $90 million over six years. The Bills have options in their toolbox that they must use before handing Allen an enormous deal. The coordinator matters. However, the Cowboys still decided against committing to Prescott even after he finished 2019 second in passing yards. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. But finalizing an extension in 2021 would stand to save the franchise some money, given where the quarterback market could be headed as the NFL’s long-term cap growth becomes a clearer reality. NFL Team News, Analysis, History, Schedule, Rumors. The 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement allows for teams to exercise a fifth year option for players drafted in the first round as an addition to the standard four year rookie contract. Allen was selected as QB3 at seventh-overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, and with it, a four-year contract with the fifth-year club option attached to it. He may prove, in the long run, to be a competent quarterback. By May 3rd of 2021, fans of the Buffalo Billswill know a lot about the team’s future. He may have jumped back into the MVP conversation after outdueling Russell Wilson last Sunday. ... With his fifth-year option looming, the next step would be offering the 24-year-old an extension. The contract includes a fifth-year option for the Bills to pick up in 2021. With the Bills able to pick up a fifth-year option that would keep Allen under his rookie agreement through 2022, it would be argued there is no rush to do an extension now. That big jump placed him between average and bad in most pertinent categories. Allen very closely followed my best crack at a statistical model to predict his growth from year one to year two. The first is that I’ll be basing my decision off of two seasons of data and some educated guesses on how the third season might go. Allen will be entering the fourth year of that deal for the 2021 season, but the Bills will have to decide whether or not they want to pick up his fifth-year … “Allen's rookie deal carries him through 2021, and Buffalo can trigger a fifth-year option for 2022.” The Buffalo Bills aren't wasting time when it comes to Josh Allen 's next contract. In 2020, Allen appeared in all 16 games for the Bills and completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Josh Allen signed a 4 year, $22,742,638 contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars, including a $14,560,100 signing bonus, $22,742,638 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,685,660. Sign in to follow this . Josh Allen signed a 4 year, $21,183,038 contract with the Buffalo Bills, including a $13,485,846 signing bonus, $21,183,038 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,295,760. They need to continue building their team to add pieces such as a stud defensive tackle and defensive end in free agency. As evidence suggests as well, overpaying for a quarterback likely has an impact on your odds to win a Super Bowl. During the Bills’ 13-3 season, despite a few shaky performances, Allen put it all together as a pass-first QB, with field-stretching go-to wide receiver Stefon Diggs being the final piece. * Wait to see how 2021 and maybe even 2022 play out by exercising his fifth-year option. Allen is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2021. If we’re really getting into the nitty-gritty of it too, Allen is roughly 50/50 when it comes to winning one-score games. I have some opinions on the matter, so get ready to shout at me in the comments. Although the franchise tag is not a commitment to Allen, it’s an available business option that the Bills have at their disposal. Allen has two years remaining on his rookie deal when factoring in his fifth-year option. That’s debatable at this point. Or not. I don’t think Josh Allen’s first three years in the league are going to be good enough to warrant the large fifth-year price tag. Before we begin, there are two basic principles that drive the conclusions below. Followers 0. Share this: Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Thus, the Bills not rushing into extending Allen could help them further identify what Allen is as a quarterback. So there’s no reason to assume that Dorsey would successfully fill the void left behind by Daboll if he were to stick around to sustain Allen’s ascend. We’ve seen the Seahawks pay Wilson a lot of money then lose a number of important pieces. If take two of the predictive model is similarly accurate, it means Allen’s production will remain relatively stagnant from year two to three. $920,000 in base salary, and $2.62 million as a roster bonus. Through the first four games of 2020, Allen was firmly in the MVP conversation. There is no doubt that Josh Allen will be the Bills quarterback for years to come. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. In his second year, he did make a pretty sizable jump. I’m making my guess today though and the “could be” scenarios aren’t guaranteed enough for my taste. Daboll may even want to promote Dorsey to the offensive coordinator of his new team. Calling plays is far different than focusing on a player’s mechanics. “I’ve been banging this drum for awhile. However, I do think he has already justified his current salary and value to keep him through four years. In Allen’s case, there’s no reason to lose the good faith and negotiating leverage that comes along with the option year. The franchise tag is another reason the Bills should be in no hurry to extend Allen. Receivers were running wide open, even when he didn’t go their way. I’m going to cut to the chase and make many of you angry with me well before the conclusion. They’re a team stat, not a Josh Allen one. Washington was not able to make the playoffs in either 2016 or 2017 which ultimately resulted in them moving on from Cousins. But don’t try to sell me on fourth-quarter comeback statistics. That made 2020 a crossroads third year for Allen. There’s a lot to like with Allen going by the eye test, but at some point that also needs to translate to production we can measure. They’re not a real quarterback stat. The Bills already reworked Stefon Diggs‘ deal by adding more guarantees to 2020. Like with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, the fifth-year option means Buffalo can exercise its fifth-year option on Allen and have him under contract for … A major issue for Allen was deep-ball accuracy—a problem that I attributed a great deal of fault to his receivers. In order to justify a large price tag, Josh Allen would need another major jump, and that’s where my confidence falters. Regular readers know I always add layers of data to the mix, and this becomes the dilemma. Although the franchise tag pays the average of the five highest salaries at the position, Washington still had $17 million in cap space in 2017 to add additional pieces. Being objective, whether you like volume or efficiency metrics, Allen’s first year was really bad. After three years of developing such a raw prospect, Brian Daboll will likely not return to Buffalo in 2021. Of course, the Bills will pick up Allen’s fifth-year option which will pay him the average of the top-10 highest salaries at the position. Fourth-quarter Allen needs to be four-quarters Allen. To date, that hasn’t been the case. If the cost is bound to be massive will Allen’s value mirror it? Your email address will not be published. There have been a couple of times in recent years where the Buffalo Bills pulled the trigger far too soon on extending their quarterbacks; signing them to bad deals that the Bills eventually had to wiggle out of. In his first two seasons, Allen leaned much on his running because of his inconsistency in passing downfield. But again, at some point these traits need to translate to consistent production. That narrows the scope of our question. Bottom of the league in nearly every category bad. Although Prescott did not get a new deal, the Cowboys had the flexibility to add pieces in free agency a la safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. Learn how your comment data is processed. We’ve seen Tyrod Taylor look more than serviceable in Greg Roman‘s run-heavy offense than when he was mismatched with Rick Dennison in 2017. As a first-round pick in 2018, Allen is eligible to have his fifth-year option picked up this offseason, ... Josh Allen finished his third NFL season with 37 TD passes and just 10 interceptions. But the Bills do not need to be in a hurry to back up the Brinks truck for Allen as they have a few options to keep him in Buffalo without the long term commitment if they so chose. They would still have the ability to extend Allen during the 2022 season, but using the option on Allen could save the Bills a few million dollars in the short term and help upgrade at positions on both sides of the ball. Should the Buffalo Bills pick up Josh Allen’s fifth-year option in 2021? Josh Allen’s fifth-year option will be the equivalent of the transition tag, or the average of the top-ten salaries at his position during his fourth year. Josh Allen never wants to leave Buffalo thanks to charitable efforts. Allen is entering the last year of his rookie deal, though the Bills will certainly pick up his fifth-year option. They looked primed to run away with the NFC East before Prescott’s season ended due to injury. And you won’t convince me that the fourth-quarter comeback is superior to the “fourth-quarter maintaining a lead.” Poise late in a game is a wonderful thing, don’t get me wrong. Comebacks depend too much on the defense stepping up, the other ten on offense executing, and more. There are certainly counterarguments. He signed a four-year, $21,265,508 contract with the Bills that includes a $13,545,824 signing bonus. Not to mystify their commitment to him but to simply continue adding pieces around him. Offensive coordinators receive a lot of credit in the NFL when their quarterbacks perform well. We’ve seen teams use the franchise tag and still have the flexibility to add more pieces to their team. The Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Dak Prescott in 2020. As the decision makers at One Bills Drive put together their plan of attack for both free agency and the NFL Draft, they have another important conclusion that they will need to reach by early May. The 2018 No. In 2021, Allen will earn a base salary of $920,000 and a roster bonus of $2,618,596, while carrying a cap hit of $6,910,057 and a dead cap value of $6,740,057. Against the Seattle Seahawks, Allen had his pick of the litter. They need not be in a hurry to extend Josh Allen and tactfully use the tools they have available before backing up the Brinks truck. That transition tag for a QB is currently estimated to be $21.2 million. With the 24-year-old passer under team control through 2022 — via the fifth-year option the Bills will exercise by May — the team will have some time to complete this process. Should the Buffalo Bills pick up Josh Allen’s fifth-year option in 2021? Allen will also earn a further $3.5 million in the fourth year of his contract. What the Jared Goff & Matthew Stafford trade me…, Baltimore Ravens 2021 Off-season Positional Needs, A Guide to the Pittsburgh Steelers Logo History, Three Steps To Fix the New York Giants Offense. Should the Buffalo Bills pick up Josh Allen’s fifth-year option in 2021? But the offensive scheme had a lot to do with Allen’s success through the air. Allen will have two years to go on his rookie deal – keeping him under contract through 2022 – once the Bills pick up the fifth-year option on his first contract, which is a foregone conclusion. By zanthrax54, June 4 in The Rick Serafin Buffalo Sports & Political Forum. We’ve seen the Washington Football Team use the franchise tag twice on Kirk Cousins before eventually moving on. There’s bound to be some fluctuation between now and then, but here’s a handy link to Spotrac.com if you want proof that this means Allen’s fifth year will come with a sizable price tag north of $17 million. The biggest difference is Prescott was not a first-round draft pick and therefore, did not have a fifth-year option. How about a future Hall of Fame player? But here’s the funny thing: I would exercise the fifth-year option for Josh Allen. In 2021, Allen will earn a base salary of $2,562,513, while carrying a cap hit of $6,202,538 and a dead cap value of $7,280,050. Or not. Ryan Fitzpatrick earned a whopping six-year deal worth $59 million in 2011. Allen's rookie deal carries him through 2021, and Buffalo can trigger a fifth-year option for 2022. There are reasons I can point to why I might be wrong as well, and believe me I want to be wrong. Allen was named to the Pro Bowl for the first time following the 2020 season. The Bills also have a fifth-year option for 2022. It’s a simple equation at its roots. Combining the two thoughts, will Josh Allen’s value match the cost? Many analysts will tell you Prescott is a better quarterback compared to Allen. That is highly significant as it means that Allen’s fifth-year option will be paid the equivalent of the 2021 transition tag. So might be a new contract. Josh Allen is off to a record-setting start The answer at the moment would have to be an emphatic yes. That report came before Saturday’s Wild Card win over the Indianapolis Colts. Allen’s 2020 Pro Bowl nod also elevates the value of his fifth-year option. Sometime between the end of the 2020 regular season and that date, the Bills will need to decide whether they will exercise the fifth-year option of Josh Allen’s rookie contract. The Bills do have a fifth-year option, which would extend the quarterback's contract an additional year. He was noticeably inaccurate but the Bills game plan kept them in it. What the Bills don’t know is how Allen will perform without Brian Daboll. Takeaways: Scattered Buffalo Bills have no answers for Kansas City Chiefs, Opinion: For a team built on scoring in 2020, Bills had problems with that in AFC Championship. The Bills could easily apply the fifth-year option to Allen before signing him to a long-term deal. Without Brian Daboll, the Bills will have a chance to gauge Allen’s performance and growth after losing such an instrumental piece to his success. Required fields are marked *. They could also decide to lure in more weapons on offense like a tight end or even create more flexibility to pay Matt Milano whose absence or minimal presence, has certainly impacted the Bills on passing downs. Bills 24, Chiefs 38: Rapid recap and notes. The point is, we don’t know what Allen is without Brian Daboll. What Allen does in 2021 and 2022, without Daboll, could go a long way in determining what type of contract the Bills offer Allen’s camp. Allen has shown flashes of being a prolific quarterback in the league but what we don’t know is how removing Daboll from the equation will ultimately impact Allen’s performance. The Bills will have to decide at the end of the current season whether to pick up his fifth-year option. It set Allen up for the 16 games that will decide his future in the league. The second principle is that the Bills have routinely demonstrated that they will put a value on each position and stick to it. Leslie Frazier, Eric Bieniemy both assembling coaches for Houston Texans head coach job, AFC Championship Game: A letter to America about the Buffalo Bills and Bills Mafia, Josh Allen’s playoff run came during father’s COVID-19-related hospital stay. Allen earns an average annual salary of $5.295 million. There’s no doubt that Allen will have earned a huge deal if and when he gets it. Want a boost to the pass rush? I won’t turn this into a stat dump, but if you’re so inclined, make sure to check out the links sprinkled throughout this paragraph courtesy of Pro Football Reference. That is drastically out of line with his current output on the field and the current best guess that I have. They would still have the ability to extend Allen during the 2022 season, but using the option on Allen could save the Bills a few million dollars in the short term and help upgrade at positions on both sides of the ball. By May 3rd of 2021, fans of the Buffalo Bills will know a lot about the team’s future. Josh Allen extension could be mix of Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff deals, ... fifth-year option, and even a franchise tag or two. 7 pick enjoyed a monster regular season. The fifth-year option equation will change with this class under the new collective bargaining agreement, with the options now being fully guaranteed when … NFL.com Digital Content Producer Josh Allen 's breakout season makes the Bills picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract in the spring a formality. The next four games, not so much. Of course, the Bills will pick up Allen’s fifth-year option which will pay him the average of the top-10 highest salaries at the position. Stefon Diggs could be what the doctor ordered. The franchise-tag option would then remain in play for 2023 if … Mocking the Bills: Zaven Collins highlights latest three-round Buffalo Bills mock, The Bills address some areas of need in the latest three-round mock draft, Opinion: the Bills should work to sign J.J. Watt. Against the Kansas City Chiefs, Allen had his worse game of the season. That Allen has “it,” with “it” being the fabled “clutch gene.” Or maybe it means he’s a “dog” or “baller?” To be fair, I think all those things are true of Allen. Embed from Getty Imageswindow.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'b5WMKReSSMZIUIQu1lU_EQ',sig:'kzeP_2MoTO2-w8AM11KZk0kakTkgVjkRvEN6IsmLmGY=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1285847345',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })}); Your email address will not be published.
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