Although the pipeline of new construction has thinned, construction should remain active through the first half of 2021. Manufacturing activity increased. Wages have grown modestly. One firm noted overwhelming orders and huge backlogs for packaging materials, while another observed a return to caution from buyers of electrical equipment. Staffing Services A western South Dakota contact said many firms were "desperate for help," a situation worsened by visa programs that were no longer a reliable labor source. A supplier of components to capital goods manufacturers said that orders started rising in Q4 2020 in anticipation of higher build rates in the second half of 2021. Loan quality decreased slightly, while loan standards tightened modestly. Business contacts in the Sixth District indicated that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-November through December. Outside the energy sector, just over half of Texas businesses surveyed expect to add to headcounts in 2021, while 38 percent expect to keep employment levels flat and 10 percent expect declines. Oil prices held relatively steady, and natural gas prices rose. Employment and Wages Residential home sales picked up markedly and prices rose for both new and existing homes. On average, manufacturing activity continued to grow slightly over the prior period; however, the trend softened in early November. Employment rose modestly since the last report, but conditions were volatile. Wages continued to grow slightly. Firms have more success at placements for those clients willing to pay competitive wages. District economic activity increased modestly. Labor market conditions varied by sector. ... uses your check to gather routing, account, and check number information to initiate a one-time EFT. Nonlabor input costs also rose for many firms. Many construction firms in Memphis anticipate a robust 2021, with projects that were previously on hold starting back up again. Employment and Wages Cleveland Auto and restaurant sales were modestly below year-ago levels, while tourism activity remained sharply lower. Home prices rose slightly, while rents rose marginally. Additionally, contacts in both Maine and Rhode Island noted a substantial influx of out-of-state buyers. Transportation Employment has increased slightly since the previous report. Consequently, home prices continued to rise, putting pressure on affordability. Software and information technology services firms reported gradual improvement, but new bookings remained below year-earlier levels. Contacts expressed having little visibility into 2021 as some expect consumer spending behavior to change as a result of the pandemic. Builders described delays in and shortages of materials and appliances as well as a spike in the price of lumber. Many hotel workers across the region remained furloughed, particularly staff that worked larger functions. Looking ahead, there has been a further modest increase in the proportion of businesses planning to raise their selling prices in the next few months—most notably in the retail and manufacturing sectors. November production was still down strongly compared with a year ago, falling nearly 21%. Looking ahead, bankers expected loan demand to remain unchanged in the near term but were optimistic that conditions will improve as more COVID-19 vaccines are distributed in 2021. Agricultural conditions improved slightly due to solid harvests, recent increases in prices for some commodities, and federal relief aid. However, demand for business loans reportedly was flat. Many attractions such as museums either closed temporarily or reported low and decreasing visitation. Industry data showed a slowing of new and active projects in the District. Manufacturing and Other Business Activity District banking contacts reported slowing growth in loan volumes but anticipate stronger demand in coming months from new PPP loans. The co-op and condo sales market has been more stable, with prices declining moderately in Manhattan but holding mostly steady in Brooklyn. Manufacturers also reported some success in pushing through price increases to cover rising input costs. Household demand softened as retailers, restaurants, and hotels reported weaker sales in late November and December, in large part because of rising COVID-19 cases. Recovery from the pandemic continued in the final weeks of 2020, with mixed results across sectors. Industry contacts reported increasing optimism surrounding COVID-19 vaccine news, which has helped to strengthen crude oil prices, although concerns about oversupply diminished some of that confidence. Although overall District auto sales declined from September to October, retail auto sales remained solid while fleet sales fell significantly as compared with year-earlier levels. Some specialty retailers, including for pet products, reported strong sales. Auto manufacturers in south central Kentucky and southern Indiana reported high levels of production. According to a 2009 Federal Reserve Bulletin, just 7 percent of US households used online banking in 1998. The housing market remained robust, and commercial real estate leasing improved somewhat. A handful of ad hoc surveys of Minnesota firms in November showed similar findings. Many contacts noted difficulty in hiring workers, especially at the entry level. Some contacts noted rising nonlabor costs, especially related to construction and shipping. Employment in the Fifth District rose moderately since the previous report. Airlines saw modest growth in bookings. Auto dealers commented that low inventories of vehicles continue to push up prices for new and used cars. New England staffing firms reported positive growth in Q3 regardless of their industry exposure. Hoteliers and restauranteurs said that government-mandated restrictions on operating hours further reduced business activity. Fifth District ports saw little change in activity since our last report. Growth was concentrated in two categories, with a modest increase in the demand for residential real estate loans and a slight increase in the demand for commercial real estate loans. “Business Day” is every Monday through Friday, excluding Federal Reserve holidays or other days that banks are legally closed. Activity in the manufacturing sector continued its robust growth, but activity remains below year-ago levels. Debt increases and bankruptcies continued for several regional firms, while other contacts reported positive net income and capital expenditure plans. Tourism and hospitality activity softened. Input costs continued to increase at a moderate pace overall, though retailers saw more substantial rises and several manufacturers noted sharply increased raw materials prices, particularly steel. On the other hand, some restaurants had to cut serving staff. Manufacturers also noted rapidly rising steel prices, with one contact attributing the increase to supply chain disruptions and increasing global demand for steel products. Well completions rose sharply as firms moved forward with bringing uncompleted wells into production. Labor constraints became more pronounced, particularly in sectors, such as health care, experiencing worker shortages due to COVID-19-related quarantines. Contacts noted some nonlabor costs rose. "Why would anyone want to stay?". The number of new listings is up from a year ago, while the inventory of homes on the market remains high in New York City but low elsewhere. Residential real estate demand was strong and home prices rose. Retail vacancies have continued to increase across the District. Wages increased marginally, whereas price inflation showed little to no change on balance. The First District saw high sales numbers in September or October, as pent-up demand from the delayed spring market and eagerness to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates overpowered the usual fall slowdown. These increases, paired with shipping delays for supplies have increased the costs of construction projects, leading homeowners to scale back renovation and building projects. Several employers expressed difficulty attracting qualified workers, especially in industries that require employees to be on-site, such as payment processing companies, hotels, and food services. Prices Nonauto retail sales increased modestly. Banking conditions stabilized, but net interest margins remained compressed. Hurricane Zeta made landfall within the District during the reporting period, causing temporary disruptions to oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Demand for nonprofit services focused on housing assistance remained at average levels, while enrollment numbers for higher education stayed tepid. Natural resource extraction conditions declined modestly from September to October, with seasonally adjusted coal production declining around 3%. Text for H.R.1625 - 115th Congress (2017-2018): Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018 Increases in headcounts were strongly tied to improvements in demand. Drive-to destinations across the District continued to experience solid activity; however, some contacts anticipate that surges in COVID-19 cases would dampen demand in the near term. On balance, contacts noted that employment levels and hours worked rose over the reporting period. Reports from District contacts suggest economic activity has continued to increase slightly since our previous report; however, conditions deteriorated toward the end of the reporting period. Summary of Economic Activity They cited a number of reasons for a shortage of workers: limited or lack of access to daycare and school, worries about contracting COVID-19, mandatory 14-day quarantines, and potential further shutdowns. Activity in tourism and hospitality picked up slightly. Construction and real estate activity was unchanged on balance over the reporting period. Even in outlying areas of the District, this often means that firms seeking workers for low-skilled jobs must compete with billboard advertisements by warehouses for positions that start at $15 an hour and higher. Contacts in nonferrous mining described activity as steady. Multifamily vacancy rates varied by location and were notably high in the District of Columbia. One clothing retailer reported store foot traffic remains down 30 percent compared to a year earlier, but a higher conversion rate and strong online sales led to a year-over-year increase of about 5 percent in total November sales. In the office market, renewals of expiring leases were almost the only activity, and tenants were willing to pay slightly higher rents in exchange for shorter lease terms. Commercial real estate contacts noted modest declines in absorption rates, sales, prices, and rents along with an increase in vacancy rates. Growth in the nonfinancial services sector resumed but remained muted as rising COVID-19 cases restrained demand. Looking ahead, businesses expect wages to accelerate somewhat—particularly in retail & wholesale trade and, to a lesser extent, in construction, information and professional & business services. Some firms experiencing continued sluggish demand attributed it to weakness in the oil and gas sector and in tourist activity. Capital expenditures were just below year-ago levels. Input prices continued rise faster than selling prices, leading to tighter profit margins. Labor demand was strongest in the manufacturing, construction, and transportation sectors, with some employers noting staffing shortages and difficulty attracting qualified workers, especially for entry-level and on-site positions. Housing markets have continued to strengthen across much of the District. Demand remained robust in the appliance, electronics, home accessories, home improvement, power sports, and recreational goods categories. Reports from District contacts suggest economic activity has continued to increase slightly since the previous report; however, conditions deteriorated toward the end of the reporting period. For more information about District economic conditions visit: www.newyorkfed.org/regional-economy. Also, despite high levels of unemployment, firms experienced mixed results in recruiting workers. Employment levels increased slightly, while price inflation showed little change. Firms across many industries, especially manufacturing and transportation, continued hiring in what remains a tight labor market. Looking ahead one year, manufacturers now anticipate receiving prices for their own goods and services that are modestly higher than they expected one quarter earlier. Light vehicle sales decreased modestly. Strong outdoor activity has lingered; visits to most of the District's major national parks rose in October compared with last year, and Mackinac Bridge traffic to Michigan's Upper Peninsula also rose over the same period. Financial conditions were little changed on balance over the reporting period. Hospitality, which was especially hard hit earlier this year, saw modestly improving conditions come to an end, as occupancies declined from the prior reporting period. Some counties in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Tennessee were designated as natural disaster areas due to losses suffered from earlier hurricanes and storm damage. Consumer Spending Observations on pricing were limited. Agriculture Boston New home development was active, and contacts noted that builders and developers were chasing land and lots. Labor markets continued to gradually improve, and wage pressures were muted, on balance. Finance-sector contacts generally reported widespread declines in business activity since the last report. On the other hand, commercial real estate loan volumes increased slightly. Until the virus is more controlled and vaccines more widely administered, most commercial respondents said they would try to delay making decisions. New orders continued to flow into staffing services firms, but their ability to fill those orders was limited by worker availability. Consumer prices increased slightly; however, nonlabor input costs have experienced stronger increases. The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-over-year unit costs increased significantly to 1.7 percent on average in December, up from 1.3 percent in November. Amid continued soft demand for crude oil, industry contacts reported consolidation among refiners and expect more in the coming months. Preliminary December data on workers compensation policies in Minnesota also showed a slight drop-off, suggesting that employers might be pulling back on future hiring plans. Dealers said that vehicle inventories remained well below pre-pandemic levels and weren't expected to rebound until well into 2021. Demand for logistics and delivery services rose further, with providers working at full capacity. Manufacturing Employment has increased slightly, while wages have increased modestly. A mid-December survey of Minnesota hospitality and tourism firms found that more than half were cutting or furloughing staff, in part due to operating restrictions put in place by the state a month earlier. The bank manager did not express what were the guidelines for acceptance before running my credit, but did open the account, however, I have contacted her superiors and The Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve and filed a complaint. The number of new CRE borrowers seeking relief continued to moderate. An index of regional manufacturing activity indicated brisk expansion in North Dakota and South Dakota in December compared with the previous month, while activity in Minnesota grew more moderately. In addition to higher prices, strong crop yields in some parts of the District boosted revenues further, particularly in Missouri. Most responding firms were optimistic in their outlooks, but still quite uncertain about the first half of 2021. Wages continued to grow slightly. Agricultural conditions improved slightly. Most contacts reported feeling confident that their product offerings were well suited for growth as the economy recovers. Commercial real estate conditions continued to deteriorate, but contacts expected vacancy rates to edge down and prices to stabilize in coming months. A producer of cardboard boxes said that paper prices had increased after remaining flat for five years. Brick-and-mortar stores continued to struggle, while on-line sales were strong. Over half of all firms noted no change in prices. Sales in professional and high-tech services rose slightly, but remained moderately below year-ago levels. Despite hiring difficulties, firms in most Districts reported that wages grew at a slight or modest pace overall. Despite this, home sales remained above year-ago levels and contacts anticipated moderate increases in sales and prices the coming months. Conditions in the Tenth District agricultural economy and prospects for farm income improved modestly since the previous reporting period alongside further increases in crop prices. Fifth District trucking volumes held fairly steady at high levels since our last report. Nonetheless, a chemical maker said prices of some bulk chemicals had spiked due to demand for PPE and the recovery in China. Agricultural conditions improved due to increased commodity prices and government aid. Growth in input prices continued to outpace that of selling prices in the services and manufacturing sectors, although more notably for the latter. However, given the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and stricter containment measures across the District, brick-and-mortar stores expressed high uncertainty, with many being cautious about stocking up for the holidays. Business loan demand increased modestly, with contacts highlighting increases in small business banking. Small-firm wages have remained more stagnant. Expectations for future production levels declined, with over one-third of contacts expecting higher levels of production over the next six months compared to one-half during the previous reporting period. Energy activity showed mounting signs of improvement after a prolonged contraction. 2 Example for how you get $5,400: A $245,000 loan at 4.00% has a monthly payment of $1,812.24 for 180 months. For the latter, this marked an improvement from declines in late summer. On balance, Third District business activity held steady for most of the current Beige Book period and remained below levels observed prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in most sectors. Leisure travel to outdoor vacation destinations continued to dominate bookings, while corporate travel remained nearly nonexistent. The freight and logistics sector was an exception. Many contacts indicated that the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic and related business restrictions/ policies was restraining hiring plans. On a year-over-year basis, demand remained muted as new bookings had not fully rebounded to last year's levels; however, the recent uptick was seen as an early sign of recovery. Bankers reported tightened credit standards across all categories. Apparel sales increased only slightly. Hospitality, which was especially hard hit earlier in the year, experienced declining occupancies over the reporting period. Philadelphia's commercial construction activity appeared to remain busy but at lower levels than had been anticipated before the pandemic. Economic activity increased moderately but remained below its pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing Contacts cited rising COVID-19 cases and falling temperatures as contributing factors. Auto sales softened somewhat, particularly for import brands. Banking conditions stabilized, taking pressure off of earnings. Despite the slower growth in demand, firms generally indicated that they would hire workers if more were available. In both states, firms reported a strong uptick in new orders and production. The pandemic remained a drag on business overall, with nearly half of manufacturers saying revenues were still below normal. In mid-November, the percentage of nonmanufacturing firms reporting higher wage and benefit costs per employee remained somewhat higher than the percentage reporting lower costs. The sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, renewed restrictions, and colder weather further reduced economic activity across most of the District, especially within the retail, restaurant, and hospitality sectors. Manufacturing orders increased modestly, although at a slower rate than in the previous period. Residential real estate activity remained strong, but accounts of weak conditions in commercial real estate markets persisted. Employment and Wages A producer of cleaning equipment was expanding operations as it sought to in-source more if its supply chain. In addition, there was some concern regarding increased competition as banks search for loan volume to help offset lower yields. Several contacts across the District expressed concern over potential loan losses in the coming months should payment deferrals and mortgage forbearances no longer be extended. Business contacts reported that the commercial real estate sector continued to encounter bifurcated conditions associated with the effects of the pandemic. A handful of workforce development sources acknowledged a growing number of available jobs. Some retail vacancies opened up as tenants went out of business, but realtors reported new interest in those spaces. Both indexes have fallen into negative territory since mid-September, indicating that declines were somewhat more widespread among firms and that the overall direction of change was no longer positive. Agricultural conditions were mixed. Many other firms reported that employment levels have remained stagnant or declined, especially small businesses and firms in the leisure and hospitality sector. Supply chain constraints boosted transportation costs and prices for certain construction and manufacturing inputs. The housing market continued to be a bright spot, and real estate lending spurred growth in overall loan volumes. Energy prices moved down further, as oil and gas inventories remained elevated and demand was slow. Several trucking contacts were optimistic about the industry going into 2021, as fewer competitors remain in business. (Five states and Greater Boston reported changes from November 2019 to November 2020; Connecticut data were unavailable.). Construction of industrial space remained a bright spot, with a contact saying completed projects in 2020 in the Indianapolis area broke 2019's record. Overall, respondents reported that loan activity declined slightly for this period, despite moderate mortgage loan growth. Volumes of home improvement goods and packaging materials were particularly high. On balance, selling prices continued to rise modestly. Summary of Economic Activity Manufacturing firms responding to a question drawn from our COVID-19 survey reported that sales and new orders were about 8 percent below what had been anticipated pre-pandemic—the same as was reported at the end of September. Growth in prices paid for inputs remained moderate and generally outpaced growth in prices received. Furthermore, contacts across the District expressed concern over renewed containment measures, including shutting down or reducing capacities for indoor dining, gyms, movie theaters, and beauty services. Contacts reported strong activity in the housing market and overall healthy conditions in lending markets. A manufacturer of ventilators cited $400 million in orders as compared to $20 million in a normal year. Also, import volumes were reported to have increased ahead of the holiday shopping season. Most responding firms cited cautiously optimistic outlooks, with continued uncertainty. Contacts also noted that construction is limited by lack of building materials, and a contact in St. Louis reported that the spike in COVID-19 cases is forcing them to regularly quarantine workers due to outside exposure. In general, outlooks were marginally positive, with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and political uncertainty continuing to weigh on sentiment. By contrast, a number of restaurants and hotels cut their prices to attract customers. Business Spending These hiring difficulties were exacerbated by the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the resulting workplace disruptions in some Districts. Manufacturers reported increased revenues from a year ago, including some strong gains. Stores in upstate New York continued to outperform those in other areas. We reserve the right to limit the types and number of Accounts eligible for the Services. But retail sales rebounded sharply in December and were above year-ago levels. Construction supply sales continued to rise modestly, but were expected to decline heading into the winter months. Capital expenditures increased modestly, as a number of contacts said they were resuming small-scale investment in equipment after pausing at the start of the pandemic. Transportation, shipping, and packaging costs increased as well. A survey of District construction firms in late October found that firms were hiring overall, particularly in skilled trades. By contrast, nondurables contacts indicated that production was slightly above year-ago levels for the first time since February. Demand for agricultural products grown in California and the Pacific Northwest expanded both domestically and internationally, as exports benefitted from a depreciated dollar. Meanwhile, some pop-up retailers developed, buying or leasing property where former retailers had gone out of business. Banking contacts continued to report high levels of deposits despite lower rates paid on interest-bearing accounts. Other contacts reported a rise in signing bonuses, but also a decline in hazard pay. Dairy prices were volatile over the reporting period but ended close to where they started. Professional and Business Services In Florida, the majority of employers expect little impact from the mandated increases to minimum wage as market forces have already begun to push wages to $15 per hour or will before the 2026 deadline. Residential real estate loans increased slightly, led by elevated refinancing activity to lock-in favorable rates. One contact reported that builders are limiting the number of home sales per week in order to not run out of inventory of quick-delivery homes. Staffing firms' revenues were down from a year ago, but they too cited quarter-over-quarter improvements. Dealers cited low interest rates and gas prices helping to bolster sales. Petrochemical manufacturers noted that reduction in crude oil refining has lowered the availability of residual products used for fuel, which ultimately has affected production supply chains, capabilities, and costs. The regional economy grew moderately in recent weeks. Demand for transportation services increased moderately, and contacts noted that capacity constraints had led to sizeable price increases. Contacts in the manufacturing, residential real estate, wholesale trade, transportation, and professional and high-tech services sectors all reported increased levels of activity. Consequently, outlooks for hiring in the year ahead were also restrained. By sending us your money, you buy the service we provide. Most contacts said that loan quality and standards were little changed, though one contact reported a slight increase in delinquencies as customers came off deferrals. Small-firm wage growth remained more mixed, with many reportedly unable to compete with larger firms' raises. However, most contacts expect drilling and completion activity to level off soon and hold nearly flat through mid-2021. Retail vacancies remained elevated compared to a year ago. Auto dealers continued to report strong consumer demand for new and used autos; however, the growth rate in new car sales remained modest on average. Some contacts in these sectors noted that they had a little more success in filling open positions, but they also reported that competition for workers was intense and that they still needed more workers to keep up with demand. Some contacts paid additional yearend bonuses to thank employees for working through a difficult year. 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